2017 paper industry market outlook forecast

　　China's papermaking, packaging and printing industry will end the journey of 2016 in turbulent waves. In the past year, this industrial chain has undergone violent turbulence, the fate of countless entrepreneurs and employees has been rewritten, and the industry structure has undergone profound changes. In a word, this year, the upstream paper industry is infinitely prosperous, the middle cardboard factory made a fortune, and the tertiary carton industry at the end is full of chicken feathers. So, what is the market outlook for this industry chain in 2017? What is the price trend of packaging paper? How will the industry structure change?

　　2017 base paper price trend analysis

　　In 2016, under the condition of overall weak market demand, affected by the paper industry's capacity reduction, G20 production suspension and production restrictions, and environmental protection trends, ox cards, corrugated paper, and white cards have all set new historical highs. This is really a surprise. Missed. As for the "paper shortage" problem that caused everyone to talk about the change of paper color, it is not that the supply of raw paper is in short supply, but the paper and paperboard industry is restructuring sales for several periods, and it is an excuse and means to transfer costs downstream.

　　Entering December 2016, although the paper industry in the north and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has been suspending production in large numbers for rectification, the signs of paper shortage are less obvious, proving that the current tightness in the supply of raw paper no longer exists. As many brands have already released carton orders ahead of time under inflation expectations, the first three months of 2017 may be the weakest quarter in more than 30 years. However, due to the increasing concentration of paper production capacity and the shutdown of paper mills for repairs during the Spring Festival, paper prices may not generally fall.

　　In the second half of 2017, as China's economy accelerates deterioration, the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate again. Even when the national real estate policy is completely turned, inflation will still fall like a flood. At this time, there may be an extreme situation where the price of paper soars and the order cliff appears simultaneously.

　　2017 paper packaging industry chain pattern change

　　Due to various liquidation crises and complicated domestic and foreign economic and political situations that China is currently facing, all industries, including the paper packaging industry chain, will face major changes in the coming year.

　　For the Chinese paper industry, the downturn has been continuing since 2010, and the golden age has long passed. The environmental protection trend in 2016 may completely eliminate most of the small and medium-sized paper companies, and the industry concentration is more obvious. In 2017, although market demand may shrink significantly, with the pricing power in hand, it can remain invincible. In addition, some large-scale papermaking projects under construction may have to be suspended.

　　The cardboard industry in the middle reaches is undoubtedly the winner in 2016. The net profit of some manufacturers soared from 8% to more than 30%, and they successfully shortened the number of customer periods to less than one month, which is booming. However, the cardboard industry in 2017 may not be so lucky. On the one hand, the closure of a large number of tertiary carton factories has led to the transfer of orders to secondary carton factories. On the other hand, the cardboard industry is likely to face the severe test of upstream raw paper and overcapacity.

　　The price hike in 2016 has already dealt a fatal blow to the carton industry, and it is inevitable that a large number of tertiary carton factories will suspend production after the Spring Festival. Although the second-tier carton companies took advantage of the opportunity to accept orders from some third-tier carton factories, these orders were mostly tasteless and meaningless. Affected by exports and domestic demand, it is still difficult for secondary factories to pass on costs to customers. The secondary carton factory in 2017 will be more difficult than 2016.

　　Judging from the history of the past decades, we must not underestimate the viability of Chinese private enterprises. Perhaps after the life and death test of 2017, the paper packaging industry will usher in a new turn for the better. Because they will be greeted with new outlets brought about by the new agriculture (the sixth industry). Judging from the recent high-level setting of the Central Economic Work Conference, the participation of a large number of powerful capital in land transfer, and the rush of top entrepreneurs to enter the new agriculture, a brand new era has come.